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Canada’s May 2025 Unemployment Rate Hits 7%: What It Means for You and the Markets

By: Rushit Goyani, RFRA

In May 2025, Canada’s unemployment rate rose to 7.0%, the highest in nine years outside the pandemic. This signals a slowing job market, with more people looking for work and fewer new jobs being created.

What Is the Unemployment Rate?

The unemployment rate shows the percentage of people in the labor force who are jobless but actively looking for work. It is a key economic signal used to measure how strong or weak the job market is at any time.

What Happened in May 2025?

Unemployment rose slightly from 6.9% in April to 7.0% in May, meaning job growth is no longer keeping up with population growth. While some jobs were added overall, key industries like manufacturing lost positions due to economic pressures, including U.S. trade tariffs.

Source: – Statistic Canda

More Canadians are staying unemployed for longer, with the average job search now taking over 21 weeks. That is a clear sign the labor market is tightening, and opportunities are becoming harder to find. Below is a month-on-month comparison for unemployment data.

Source: Trading Economics / Statistics Canada

In Canada, an increase in the unemployment rate is generally seen as a sign of economic weakening, often prompting the Bank of Canada to reassess its monetary policy stance. This trend indicates that job creation is not keeping pace with the country’s growing population, suggesting a cooling labour market.

To counteract such economic slowdowns, the Bank of Canada may opt to lower its benchmark interest rate in an effort to encourage borrowing, spur investment, and drive employment growth. However, this strategy must be weighed against the potential for inflation. For example, as of June 2025, the Bank chose to hold its key rate steady at 2.75%, despite signs of an economic slowdown. This decision was largely influenced by the uptick in core inflation, which had climbed to 3.15% in April, exceeding the central bank’s comfort zone.

This cautious approach highlights the challenges involved in setting monetary policy amid mixed economic signals. Although rising unemployment would usually justify easing interest rates, sustained inflation can limit the Bank’s flexibility. Consequently, the Bank of Canada must navigate a delicate balance, factoring in a range of economic indicators to ensure financial stability and support long-term growth.

Below is a long-term chart of the unemployment rate, interest rate, and GDP growth rate.

Why It Matters: Bonds and Stocks

Bond Market Effects

When unemployment rises, central banks may lower interest rates to support the economy. Lower rates tend to boost bond prices, as investors shift to safer, more stable returns during uncertain times.

Stock Market Effects

Higher unemployment can hurt company profits, as fewer people working means lower consumer spending. But if markets expect interest rate cuts, that could help stocks rise by making borrowing cheaper and boosting confidence.

Key Takeaways

• 7.0% unemployment shows Canada’s economy is slowing and job creation is not keeping pace.
  This may lead the Bank of Canada to adjust interest rates to avoid further economic weakening.
• Bond markets often respond positively to rising unemployment because it suggests future rate cuts.
  As a result, bond investors may see rising prices if the central bank shifts to a more supportive stance.
• Stock markets face uncertainty, balancing the negative effect of weaker earnings with the potential benefit of lower interest rates.
  The reaction depends on whether investors believe the slowdown is short-term or a longer economic trend.
• Investors should watch for Bank of Canada updates and labor market trends.
  These signals help forecast economic direction and how both bonds and stocks might behave.

Bottom line: Canada’s rising unemployment rate is a sign of economic slowdown. It affects everyday people, financial markets, and policy decisions—so it is a number worth watching.

“Is Your Financial Life Jacket Onboard?”

By: Rushit Goyani, RFRA

Storms don’t announce themselves. The same goes for financial disruption. So, when life gets choppy—are you wearing your financial life jacket, or are you just hoping to swim?

The market can be like the ocean—sometimes calm, sometimes wild, and sometimes, out of nowhere, a wave hits. And when that happens, you better have your life jacket on.

In the world of investing, your life jacket isn’t made of foam or nylon—it’s made of preparation. Two to three years’ worth of financial savings, kept aside for emergencies—medical, personal, or otherwise. It’s money that’s liquid and accessible, ideally in a conservative portfolio that doesn’t nosedive during a market dip but still grows more than inflation. That’s the peace of mind you need.

Last week, we saw the market fluctuate wildly—up 8–10% one day, down 6–7% another. By the end of it, we will back to square one. But for many investors, those swings triggered fear. Portfolios dropped, emotions ran high, and panic set in.

But not for everyone.

The investors who stayed calm? They were the ones with their life jackets on. They weren’t worried because they had their emergency funds in place. They knew that regardless of what happens in the market—or what headlines pop up—they’ll still eat good food, drive their nice cars, take vacations, and live their lives. Nothing fundamentally changes for them.

Now, let’s be clear: we’re not suggesting you pull everything and stash it in GICs. That doesn’t work either. GICs barely beat inflation, if at all. They might seem “safe,” but you’re losing money in the long term because your cash isn’t working for you. It’s just sitting there. Not ideal.

This is where a good financial planner enters the picture. At ECIVDA, we work with clients to design portfolios that reflect their risk tolerance and future needs. We call to check in, support you during turbulent times, and make sure your financial “life jacket” is always zipped up and ready.

Because when the market gets rough—and it will—those with a solid foundation don’t flinch. They float.

If you don’t have this kind of setup yet, don’t worry. We’re here to help.

Click HERE to book a meeting today!!

Why GICs Are Only for Short-Term Investments—and What to Choose Instead

By: Rushit Goyani, RFRA

Guaranteed Investment Certificates (GICs) are often seen as a safe way to grow your money. They offer guaranteed returns, making them attractive to risk-averse investors. But when you consider taxes and inflation, the real return on GICs is often disappointing.

The Hidden Reality of GIC Returns

A 1-year GIC may show a 3% return on paper, but once you factor in taxes and inflation, the real value of your money remains stagnant—or worse, declines. This is because:

• Taxes eat into your interest earnings.
• Inflation reduces your purchasing power.
• Over time, your money doesn’t truly grow, but simply maintains its value at best.

If your goal is purely capital preservation for the short term (6 months to 1 year), GICs can be a viable option. However, for long-term growth, they are not the best choice.

Balanced Mutual Funds: A Better Alternative

For investors seeking a similar risk profile to GICs but with better long-term growth, balanced mutual funds are a great alternative. These funds invest in a mix of stocks and bonds, providing moderate growth while minimizing volatility.

Let’s take a look at some real balanced mutual fund performances over the last nine years:

• Low Volatility: Out of nine years of data, balanced mutual funds have had only 2 to 3 years of negative returns.
• Strong Growth: A $100 investment in 2015 would have grown to between $150 and $220 by 2024, delivering an approximate return of 50% to 120%.
• Medium to Low Risk: These funds balance safety with reasonable returns, making them a great choice for long-term investors.

 Comparing GICs and Balanced Mutual Funds

Final Thoughts

While GICs are great for preserving capital in the short term, they do not provide meaningful growth over time. If you want your money to work for you while maintaining a conservative risk profile, balanced mutual funds are a much better alternative. With historically strong returns and limited downside, they offer an excellent way to grow your wealth over time while still protecting against major market downturns.

Before making an investment decision, consider your financial goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance. But if you’re looking for growth without excessive risk, balanced mutual funds are a smarter choice than GICs.

Book an appointment to talk to us today!  CLICK HERE